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China swings into deflation as recovery falters
  + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s consumer prices fell into deflation in July, while factory gate prices extended their declines, as the world’s second-largest economy struggled to revive demand and pressure mounted for authorities to release more direct stimulus. FILE PHOTO: Staff sort fruits at a Walmart in Beijing, China, September 23, 2019. China’s economic recovery slowed after a brisk start in the first quarter, as demand at home and abroad weakened. “Both CPI and PPI in year-on-year terms fell into negative territory and confirmed economic deflation,” said Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at ANZ. Otherwise, economic data showing some growth improvement is required, which is not coming through yet.”JAPAN-STYLE DEFLATION?
Persons: Tingshu Wang, , , Xing Zhaopeng, Xing, Frances Cheung, Japan’s “, Liu Guoqiang Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, Authorities, CPI, PPI, ANZ, , OCBC Bank, NBS, Investors Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, Shanghai, Singapore, JAPAN, Brazil
Customers select tomatoes at a stall inside a morning market in Beijing, China August 9, 2023. The consumer price index (CPI) dropped 0.3% year-on-year in July, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Wednesday, compared with the median estimate for a 0.4% decrease in a Reuters poll. The producer price index (PPI) declined for a 10th consecutive month, down 4.4% and faster than the forecast 4.1% fall. Asian shares were on the defensive on Wednesday as the Chinese price data confirmed its economic recovery was losing steam. Beijing has set a consumer inflation target of around 3% this year, which would be up from 2% recorded in 2022, and for now, authorities are downplaying concerns about deflation.
Persons: Wang, Japan’s “, , Gary Ng, Liu Guoqiang, Xia Chun, Tommy Wu, Wu Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, , Asia Pacific, Natixis, Commerzbank Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, Asia, Brazil, Japan, Hong Kong
China posted GDP growth of 6.3% in the second quarter of 2023, badly missing expectations. Even so, China is unlikely to unleash major stimulus measures to boost the economy because it's already in so much debt. And while the GDP did grow year-on-year, it bears noting that the comparison is with a low base from last year when China's economy was battered by on-off COVID-19 restrictions. "There are growing hopes for 'big bang' stimulus to fire up China's growth," Vishnu Varathan, the head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, wrote in a Monday note before China's second-quarter GDP release. The inherent risk with such high debt levels is that a default threatens a domino impact on the Chinese economy — and even the world.
Persons: Vishnu Varathan, China's, Liu Guoqiang, Zhu Min, Robert Carnell, ING's, Carnell, Nomura Organizations: Service, Reuters, Mizuho Bank, Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund, Asia Pacific Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Tianjin
[1/2] Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. The central bank will step up "countercyclical adjustments" to support the economic recovery, PBOC Deputy Governor Liu Guoqiang told the press conference. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the central bank to cut the RRR by 25 basis points in the third quarter. But Liu said China has not seen deflation and there were no deflationary risks for the second half. "As for the specific policy tools, we will use them reasonably according to the needs of the situation."
Persons: Tingshu Wang, Zou Lan, Zou, Liu Guoqiang, Liu, Liangping Gao, Ellen Zhang, Shri Navaratnam, William Mallard Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Reuters, Securities Times, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING
Jason Lee | ReutersBEIJING – China's consumer prices will likely decline in July before recovering, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, told reporters Friday. Official measures of consumer prices have barely changed in the last several months amid tepid demand, in contrast to high inflation in the U.S. and Europe. watch nowThe central bank said in April consumer prices would likely see a "U-shaped" recovery this year. He described the real estate market as "stable" overall, but said that "some real estate companies' long-accumulated risks require a period of time to gradually absorb." He said that was out of "consideration of deep changes in the relationship between supply and demand in [China's] real estate market."
Persons: Jason Lee, Liu Guoqiang, Liu, Bruce Pang, Zou Lan, Zou Organizations: People's Bank of China, Reuters, People's Bank of Locations: Beijing, China, Reuters BEIJING, People's Bank of China, U.S, Europe, JLL
Hong Kong CNN —China’s outgoing Premier Li Keqiang has announced the country’s lowest GDP growth target in decades, highlighting the domestic and global challenges the world’s second largest economy still faces despite its decision late last year to ditch draconian anti-Covid measures. It fell well short of the official growth target of “around 5.5%.”“Having declared the end of pandemic, the leaders are sticking to the slowing GDP growth path in the long term by lowering annual GDP target gradually,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank. “Moreover, China has been downplaying the numeric GDP target and shifted to balance the quality since President Xi’s era,” he said. Premier Li also said the government would only raise fiscal spending by 5.6% this year, which is lower than the growth of 6.1% in fiscal spending in 2022. “After three years of pandemic [measures], it could be more than desirable for governments, especially the local governments, to restore fiscal resilience,” said Citi analysts.
[1/4] Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu WangBEIJING, March 3 (Reuters) - China's central bank will adjust monetary policy in a timely and appropriate manner, and cutting banks' reserve requirements to release long-term liquidity will still be an effective tool to support the economy, top bank officials said on Friday. "The PBOC will provide 'forceful' financial support for the stable and healthy development of the economy," People's Bank of China Governor Yi Gang told a news conference. Liu Guoqiang, a deputy PBOC governor, said China's economy is recovering but still faces some uncertainties and more policy support is needed. Since 2020, the central bank has expanded its arsenal of tools, including relending and rediscount facilities and other low-cost loans.
SHANGHAI, Dec 17 (Reuters) - China will maintain reasonably ample liquidity in financial markets while better serving needs from the real economy next year, state media quoted a vice governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) as saying on Saturday. Monetary policy in 2023 will ensure sufficient amount of liquidity and the structure will be accurate to aid key sectors, PBOC Deputy Governor Liu Guoqiang said. "Funding cost will remain reasonably flexible, with little ups and downs," Liu was quoted by state broadcaster CCTV as saying. At the same forum, Vice Finance Minister Xu Hongcai said China will also implement a proactive fiscal policy next year, setting a reasonable deficit ratio and the size of local government special bonds. China will "appropriately expand the areas where special government bond funds can be invested and used as capital," CCTV reported Xu as saying.
The Chinese yuan weakened past the closely-watched 7.2 level against the greenback this week. BEIJING — The People's Bank of China has warned against betting on the yuan, after its rapid decline against the U.S. dollar this week. "Do not bet on a one-sided appreciation or deprecation of the renminbi exchange rate," the central bank said in a Chinese statement on its website late Wednesday, according to a CNBC translation. That's based on a readout of a speech by vice governor Liu Guoqiang at a video conference meeting on foreign exchange that day. The renminbi, or the yuan, crossed the 7.2 level against the greenback Wednesday, falling to its weakest since 2008.
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